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The MLB Playoff Picture 2025: Bracket, Matchups, and What to Expect in October’s Wild Ride

Jeremy Gibbons by Jeremy Gibbons
September 30, 2025
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mlb post season 2025 outlook

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As the leaves turn and the air crisps, baseball’s grandest stage beckons. The 2025 Major League Baseball regular season concluded on September 28 with a flurry of clinches, collapses, and tiebreakers that kept fans on the edge of their seats until the final out. For the fourth consecutive year, the expanded 12-team postseason format promises high-stakes drama, starting with the Wild Card Series on Tuesday, September 30. This year’s field is as unpredictable as ever—no juggernaut dominates like the 2024 Dodgers did in their championship run—and experts are forecasting chaos, upsets, and potential deep runs from surprise squads.

With division races decided in Game 162 (Toronto edging New York in the AL East and Cleveland holding off Detroit in the AL Central) and the NL’s final wild card hinging on a tiebreaker favoring Cincinnati over the Mets, the playoff picture is set. The Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays earned the top seeds and first-round byes, securing home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Expect electric atmospheres, bullpen battles, and star-powered moments as 12 teams vie for the Commissioner’s Trophy. Here’s a deep dive into the bracket, key matchups, team previews, and bold predictions for what could unfold.

The Postseason Format: A Quick Refresher

MLB’s current structure rewards the top three division winners in each league with playoff spots, plus three wild cards per league based on overall record. The two division winners with the best records (Brewers in the NL, Blue Jays in the AL) get byes into the Division Series. The other 10 teams duke it out in best-of-three Wild Card Series, all hosted by the higher seed.

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  • Wild Card Series (Sept. 30–Oct. 2): Best-of-three, higher seed hosts all games.
  • Division Series (Oct. 4–10): Best-of-five.
  • League Championship Series (Oct. 13–20): Best-of-seven.
  • World Series (Oct. 24–Nov. 1): Best-of-seven, starting at the AL/NL pennant winner with the better record.

All games are broadcast on ESPN (Wild Card), FOX/FS1 (AL), TBS (NL), and FOX (World Series), with streaming available on the ESPN app, Fubo, and MLB.tv. Betting odds heavily favor the Phillies (+500) and Dodgers (+600) to win it all, per FanGraphs simulations, but underdogs like the Reds (+2500) could steal the show.

The 2025 Playoff Bracket

American League

SeedTeamRecordNotes
1Toronto Blue Jays (East)95-67Top seed, bye. Offense looked great
2Seattle Mariners (West)92-70Bye; elite pitching, but offense needs to heat up.
3Cleveland Guardians (Central)90-72Epic comeback from 15.5 games back; low-powered offense, but GRITTY
4New York Yankees89-73Wild card; Aaron Judge’s team.
5Boston Red Sox87-75Wild card; Garrett Crochet leads the way
6Detroit Tigers86-76Wild card; disappointingly.

Wild Card Matchups:

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  • (2) Mariners vs. (3) Guardians (Oct. 1–3 at Seattle)
  • (4) Yankees vs. (5) Red Sox (Oct. 1–3 at New York)

National League

SeedTeamRecordNotes
1Milwaukee Brewers (Central)97-65NL’s best record; bye, balanced attack.
2Philadelphia Phillies (East)94-68Bye; MLB’s hottest team since August (35-19).
3Los Angeles Dodgers91-71Defending champs; incredible wRC+
4Chicago Cubs88-74Wild card; first full-season playoffs since 2018.
5San Diego Padres86-76Wild card; elite bullpen
6Cincinnati Reds85-77Wild card; lucky to be here, great SP staff

Wild Card Matchups:

  • (3) Dodgers vs. (6) Reds (Sept. 30–Oct. 2 at Los Angeles)
  • (4) Cubs vs. (5) Padres (Sept. 30–Oct. 2 at Chicago)

Wild Card Series Breakdown: What we can see

The Wild Card round is a sprint—win two games or go home. All series are hosted by the higher seed, giving home teams a decided edge (higher seeds have won 70% of these series since the format’s inception).

  • AL: Mariners vs Guardians: Seattle’s rotation, led by All-Star Bryan Woo (15 wins, 2.94 ERA), faces Cleveland’s contact-hitting machine (MLB-low 120 HRs but top-10 in runs scored). The Guardians’ 76-year title drought adds immense pressure—expect Tanner Bibee to dominate early. Prediction: Mariners in 2; their pitching stifles Cleveland’s small ball.
  • AL: Yankees vs Red Sox: A classic rivalry reignites, with Boston’s Lucas Giolito sidelined by elbow issues. New York’s Max Fried and Carlos Rodón form a fearsome 1-2 punch against Garrett Crochet’s gem (2.45 ERA). Aaron Judge’s back-to-back 50-HR seasons could bury Boston. Prediction: Yankees in 2; the Bronx Bombers’ 221 team HRs overwhelm Fenway.
  • NL: Dodgers vs Reds: Defending champs host a plucky Cincinnati squad with MLB’s No. 2 rotation in fWAR (Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo). The Reds’ youth (Elly De La Cruz’s speed) vs. LA’s depth (record 128 holds in relief) is must-watch. Prediction: Dodgers in 3; but Greene could steal Game 1. The Reds really could take them out backed by the “TITO MAGIC!”
  • NL: Cubs vs Padres: Chicago’s Seiya Suzuki and a resurgent bullpen host San Diego’s star-studded but homer-light offense (28th in MLB with 152 dingers). Dylan Cease vs. the Padres’ Yu Darvish (postseason vet) sets the tone. Prediction: Cubs in 3; Wrigley Field’s magic returns for a heartbreaking loss for the Padres in 3.

Bold Predictions: What Could Go Wrong (or Right)

  • Upset Alert: Reds topple Dodgers in 3— Cincinnati’s rotation exploits LA’s inconsistencies, sending shockwaves.
  • MVP Lock: Aaron Judge hits .350 with 5 HRs, but Yankees flame out in ALCS—history repeats.
  • Deep Run: Mariners finally break through to the World Series, with Woo earning ALCS MVP.
  • World Series: Phillies over Blue Jays in 6—Philly’s motivation from recent early exits fuels a title, their first in awhile.

The Road to the Fall Classic: Why This Postseason Feels Electric

Unlike 2024’s Dodgers dynasty echo, 2025’s playoffs are a crapshoot—12 flawed contenders mean upsets are inevitable. Droughts (Cleveland’s 76 years without a title) clash with redemption arcs (Cubs’ return), and rivalries (Yankees-Red Sox) add spice. Tune in starting Tuesday for baseball at its purest: pressure-packed, unpredictable, and utterly addictive. Whoever emerges from this gauntlet will have earned every confetti drop. Who’s your pick? The march to November 1 begins now. Let’s be real, it’ll probably end up being Phillies vs Mariners. That’d be a fun outcome.

Tags: MLB PlayoffsMLB Playoffs 2025
Jeremy Gibbons

Jeremy Gibbons

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